NCAAF Football Free Pick: UCF @ Georgia Tech

UCF has had one of the most prolific offenses in the nation over the past several years in the FBS. Saturday, they will put that offense to the test against Georgia Tech, an upset winner over Florida State last week. Having trouble handicapping this one? Here’s one our free football picks.

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The Knights offense finished second nationally last year averaging 541 yards per game. Leading the charge is QB Dillon Gabriel. The UCF offense operates on precision and without a game under its belt it’s tough to predict whether the Knights will be operating on all cylinders.

That may be a clue to Saturday’s free pick.

Game: UCF Knights (0-0, 0-0 ATS) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (1-0, 1-0 ATS)

When: 3:30 PM ET, Saturday, September 19, 2020

Where: Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field, Atlanta, Georgia

Current Line: UCF -7 Total: 62.5

TV Coverage: ABC

Giving 7 on the Road

The Knights check in as a seven-point favorite on the road. UCF is not used to giving single digits rather the Knights were double-digit favorites in all but two of their games in 2019.

In addition to Gabriel, the Knights have wide receivers Tre Nixon and Marlon Williams back. They also have the three-headed monster - Otis Anderson, Bentavious Thompson, and Greg McRae - back in the backfield. The trio rushed for 1,859 yards and 20 touchdowns last season.

The concern for UCF is the 10 or so players that opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19 concerns. In total, the Knights return 67 percent of their offensive production from 2019.

Defensive Rules

What UCF will go up against is a pretty good Georgia Tech defense. Under second-year head coach Geoff Collins, the Yellow Jackets are still adjusting, but sport bettors know the defense was good enough to hold Florida State to just 13 points last Saturday.

Collins coached teams have been known for their defense and this year’s Georgia Tech team should be no different. If there were questions about the Yellow Jackets, they would be on offense where Georgia Tech is still adjusting from Paul Johnson’s triple option offense.

Tech proved to be turning the corner against the Seminoles last week. Quarterback Jeff Sims threw for 277 yards and ran for 64 more to lead the Yellow Jackets to over 400 yards of total offense.

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Recent Stats

The UCF defense is no juggernaut. In fact, in the Knights last ten games, UCF has given up at least three touchdowns in all but one of those games. The one in which they didn’t was last year’s game with South Florida, which had one of the most anemic offenses in the country.

Now, Georgia Tech has only covered the spread once in its last seven home games. The Yellow Jackets are also just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. That’s a little scary for bettors looking to back the Ramblin’ Wreck.

On the other end, UCF is only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games and just 1-5 ATS in their last six Saturday games.

Georgia Tech’s defense is for real and UCF is going to have some difficulty getting the offense all lubed up in Week 1. Check the latest NCAAF odds, but at the time of writing, the Total was set at 62.5. We’re going to stay away from picking a side and go all in on the UNDER.

NCAAF Free Pick: UCF-Georgia Tech UNDER 62.5