NFL Win Totals Betting Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Just two seasons removed from an appearance in the AFC Championship, the Jacksonville Jaguars fell down to a 6-10 last season. With a number of key veterans gone and a young QB in Gardner Minshew as the starter, the Jaguars may be a team on the eve of a rebuild, as opposed to getting back to the postseason for the first time since 2017.

Currently, odds-makers at Scores and stats have placed Jacksonville’s over/under win total at 5, the lowest in the NFL. Let’s take a deeper dive into their offseason moves, as well as their schedule, and then give you our pick for where we think they’ll end up.

Offseason Summary

The Jaguars didn’t hand out many big contracts this offseason, but they still spent a little bit of money trying to improve. Their biggest deal was given to Browns LB Joe Schobert, who inked a five-year contract worth over $50 million. They also retained EDGE Yannick Ngakoue with the franchise tag, although he has expressed a desire to be traded. As far as other additions go, Jacksonville signed Bengals TE Tyler Eifert to a two-year deal, as well as Cardinals DL Rodney Gunter, Lions CB Rashaan Melvin, Seahawks DT Al Woods, and Raiders QB Mike Glennon to one-year contracts.

Jacksonville’s defense took some hits over the last couple of months as well. DE Calais Campbell was dealt to the Ravens, while CB A.J. Bouye was traded to the Broncos. DT Marcell Dareus and LB Jake Ryan will also not be returning to the team after hitting the open market. On the other side of the football, QB Nick Foles was traded to the Bears after one unsuccessful season in Jacksonville, while WR Marqise Lee and OT Cedric Ogbuehi signed with the Patriots and Seahawks, respectively.

As far as the draft went, the Jags has no shortage of picks. They used their two first round selections on Florida CB C.J. Henderson and LSU LB K’Lavon Chaisson, both of whom should start right away. They also added a receiver to the mix in Colorado WR Laviska Shenault and brought in some bulk on the defensive line with Ohio State DT DaVon Hamilton. They had eight other selections on Day 3, highlighted by Saint John’s OT Ben Bartch, Miami LB Shaquille Quarterman, and Auburn S Daniel Thomas.

2020 Schedule

Along with the rest of their division rivals in the AFC, the Jaguars will go up against the teams in the AFC North and NFC North. As the last-place team in 2019, Jacksonville will also have two at-large games against two other last place teams in the Dolphins and Chargers. Overall, the Jags own the 22nd-most difficult schedule according to their opponents combined win percentage of .494, which is the easiest in the division.

After back-to-back divisional games against the Colts and Titans to open up the year, the Jaguars have a stretch where three of their next four games are against the Dolphins, Bengals (road), and Lions, three teams who picked in the top-five of this year’s draft. Following a Week 7 bye, the schedule difficulty gets amplified, with road games against the Chargers and Packers and home games against the Texans, Steelers and Browns. December road matchups against the Vikings and Ravens are ahead for them as well, before a Week 17 finale at Indianapolis.

Verdict

Even though Jacksonville is on the verge of a rebuild, they still possess a defense that can keep them competitive. In addition to Henderson and Chaisson, edge rushers Ngakoue and the second-year player Josh Allen, along with LB Myles Jack, give the Jags some firepower. On offense, RB Leonard Fournette is still a very solid back, and WR D.J. Clark is coming off of a breakout season.

All that being said, they’re the clear fourth-place team in the AFC South, and will face a number of teams who have improved drastically over the course of their schedule. Minshew is still unproven, the offensive line isn’t great, and the secondary is below-average even with Henderson. The odds of them winning six games again seem slim, so I’m going with the UNDER 5 wins for the Jaguars this season. When betting the Jaguars - do so at our favorite pay per head bookie site http://cornerbookie.com/the-best-betting-service/