FreeSportsLetter.com Picks

(SCROLL DOWN FOR NFL TRENDS)

2019 NFL and NCAA Football Against The Spread (ATS) Trends

Here is a look before the 2019 College Football season starts on lined teams and some basic ATS trends:

Air Force -- 11-2 ATS as Dogs >=7 pts, 0-10 ATS vs Wyoming

Akron -- New Head Coach, 3-0 ATS at Miami-Ohio, 1-9 ATS as Favorites >10 pts

Alabama -- 18-2 ATS in the first of back-to-back Road games, 1-6 ATS after playing Texas A&M

Appalachian State -- 6-1 ATS after scoring at least 35 points, 0-5 ATS off a shutout win

Arizona -- 5-1 ATS as Road Dogs >=15 pts, 2-8 ATS after scoring <10.5 pts

Arizona State -- 9-3 ATS as Home Dogs, 0-9 ATS on weekdays

Arkansas -- 6-0 ATS vs Ole Miss, 0-5 ATS after allowing 10 or less pts

Arkansas State -- 9-0 ATS vs UL-Monroe, 1-5 ATS after playing Troy

Army -- 6-0 ATS vs better than average foes, 0-6 ATS before playing Navy

Auburn -- 4-0 ATS vs Ole Miss, 1-5 ATS before playing Florida

Ball State -- 5-1 ATS as Road Favs, 0-7 ATS vs Northern Illinois

Baylor -- 7-0 ATS versus Kansas, 0-7 ATS at Home vs Texas Tech

Boise State -- 6-1 ATS vs San Jose St, 0-5 ATS before playing Byu

Boston College -- 8-0 ATS before playing Louisville, 1-5 ATS after playing Va Tech

Bowling Green -- New Head Coach, 10-1 ATS vs Akron, 0-5 ATS vs Buffalo

Buffalo -- 5-0 ATS vs Bowling Green, 0-3 ATS at Akron

BYU -- 7-1 ATS after playing Utah, 1-8 ATS with Rest

California -- 6-1 ATS before playing Usc, 1-7 ATS vs Oregon

Central Michigan -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS vs Northern Illinois, 0-9 ATS vs Toledo

Charlotte -- New Head Coach, 4-1 ATS with Rest, 1-10 ATS in non-Conference Play

Cincinnati -- 13-2 ATS with Rest, 0-4 ATS vs Temple

Clemson -- 9-1 ATS before playing Boston College, 0-6 ATS as beaten Favorites

Coastal Carolina -- 3-0 ATS off exactly one ATS win, 0-3 ATS as Home Favorites

Colorado -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS vs Ucla, 0-5 ATS at Arizona State

Colorado State -- 5-1 ATS vs New Mexico, 0-4 ATS as Bowlers

Connecticut -- 3-0 vs Usf, 1-8 ATS as beaten Favorites

Duke -- 5-0 ATS as Bowlers, 0-4 ATS vs Virginia

East Carolina -- New Head Coach, 3-0 ATS vs UConn, 0-6 ATS vs Temple

Eastern Michigan -- 8-0 ATS after playing Toledo, 0-6 ATS after playing Ball State

Florida -- 6-0 ATS before playing LSU, 1-7 ATS after playing Georgia

Florida Atlantic -- 4-1 ATS vs Western Kentucky, 2-11 ATS after allowing at least 35 pts

Florida International -- 7-0 ATS off a Double Digit SU loss, 0-5 ATS as Dogs when beaten Favs

Florida State -- 7-1 ATS vs below .500 opponents, 0-9 ATS after a SU Dog win

Fresno State -- 4-0 ATS vs Hawaii, 1-5 ATS vs New Mexico State

Georgia -- 6-0 ATS on the Road off a SU Dog win, 0-4 ATS vs Missouri

Georgia Southern -- 5-0 ATS vs South Alabama, 1-4 ATS with Rest off non-Conference Play

Georgia State -- 4-0 ATS before playing Troy, 3-10 ATS as Home Dogs

Georgia Tech -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS before playing Virginia, 0-10 ATS at Home vs Georgia

Hawaii --6-0 ATS Home vs Pac 12, 0-7 ATS before playing Fresno State

Houston -- New Head Coach, 7-0 ATS in first of back-to-back Road Games, 1-5 ATS after playing Smu

Illinois -- 8-0 ATS as Conference Dogs off back to back SU wins, 2-13 ATS before playing Iowa

Indiana -- 7-1 ATS vs Ohio State, 0-7 ATS as Home Dogs

Iowa -- 6-0 ATS as beaten Favs, 0-9 ATS off 3+ ATS wins

Iowa State -- 7-1 ATS as non-Conference Favs, 1-6 ATS before playing Tcu

Kansas -- New Head Coach, 9-2 ATS after playing Texas, 0-7 ATS vs Baylor

Kansas State -- New Head Coach, 11-2 ATS with Rest, 3-7 ATS as Home Favs

Kent State -- 4-0 ATS vs Eastern Michigan, 1-10 ATS as Home Favs off SU loss

Kentucky -- 6-0 ATS vs South Carolina, 0-6 ATS vs Georgia

UL-Lafayette -- 6-0 ATS vs Texas State, 4-9 ATS as Home Favs

UL-Monroe -- 9-1 ATS as Dogs off a Double Digit SU win, 0-9 ATS vs Arkansas State

Liberty -- New Head Coach, 3-1 ATS off an ATS loss, 0-3 ATS off an ATS win

Louisiana Tech -- 9-0 ATS as Road Dogs <10.5 pts, 0-4 ATS as Home Favs

Louisville -- New Head Coach, 9-0 ATS as Double Digit Dogs off a SU win, 0-5 ATS vs Wake Forest

LSU -- 8-0 ATS vs Texas A&M, 1-5 ATS before playing Arkansas

Marshall -- 10-1 ATS last game of season, 0-4 ATS vs Western Kentucky

Maryland -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS at Temple, 0-12 ATS off a SU and ATS Conference win

Memphis -- 5-0 ATS vs SMU, 1-7 ATS as Road Dogs

Miami -- New Head Coach, 6-1 ATS vs Florida, 0-6 ATS vs Louisville

Miami OH -- 6-1 ATS vs Northern Illinois, 0-4 ATS at Home vs Bowling Green

Michigan -- 4-0 ATS vs Maryland, 1-9 ATS after playing Penn State

Michigan State -- 7-0 ATS before playing Wisconsin, 1-6 ATS after playing Indiana

MTSU -- 4-0 ATS with Rest, 0-9 ATS after playing Florida International

Minnesota -- 5-1 ATS after playing Nebraska, 1-8 ATS after playing Purdue

Mississippi -- 7-1 ATS before playing Alabama, 0-6 ATS vs Arkansas

Mississippi State -- 5-0 ATS before playing Kentucky, 0-7 ATS on the Road off a SU Dog win

Missouri -- 59-6 ATS when they win Straight Up on the Road, 0-9 ATS as Favorites off a SU Dog win

Navy -- 4-0 ATS vs Memphis, 3-18 ATS Home off a SU Dog win

Nebraska -- 6-2 ATS as Road Dogs, 0-4 ATS as Home Dogs

Nevada -- 6-1 ATS vs Hawaii, 0-3 ATS vs Fresno State

New Mexico -- 7-1 ATS vs Hawaii, 0-4 vs San Jose State

New Mexico State -- 5-0 ATS after playing Utep, 1-9 ATS as Dogs

North Carolina -- 6-0 ATS after playing Virginia Tech, 0-7 ATS first lined game

North Carolina State -- 8-0 ATS off a lined weekday game, 1-6 ATS after playing Florida State

North Texas -- 4-0 ATS after playing UTEP, 2-6 ATS as Home Favs

Northern Illinois -- New Head Coach, 7-0 ATS vs Ball State, 0-5 ATS vs Central Michigan

Northwestern -- 7-0 ATS after playing Iowa, 1-6 ATS vs Ohio State

Notre Dame -- 10-1 ATS with Revenge off a win, 1-5 ATS as Home Favs of 7 or more pts

Ohio State -- New Head Coach, 5-0 vs Rutgers, 2-9 ATS before playing Michigan

Ohio U -- 6-0 ATS after playing Kent, 2-10 ATS on the Road with Rest

Oklahoma -- 5-0 ATS vs West Virginia, 0-6 ATS vs Texas

Oklahoma State -- 7-0 ATS after playing Texas Tech, 1-7 ATS vs Kansas State

Old Dominion -- 4-0 ATS as Favorites with Revenge, 0-6 ATS as Dogs >15 pts

Oregon -- 7-1 ATS vs California, 0-9 ATS vs Washington State

Oregon State -- 5-0 ATS after scoring <10.5 pts, 0-7 ATS vs foes with Revenge

Penn State -- 10-5 ATS as Home Favs, 0-4 ATS vs opponents off a SU Dog win

Pittsburgh -- 5-0 ATS vs Virginia Tech, 0-5 ATS at Home vs North Carolina

Purdue -- 11-0 ATS as Road Dogs >=11 pts, 2-11 ATS vs Wisconsin

Rice -- 7-0 ATS before playing North Texas, 0-4 ATS at Uab

Rutgers -- 4-1 ATS vs Indiana, 0-5 ATS vs Ohio State

San Diego State -- 9-0 ATS with Rest off back-to-back SU losses, 1-7 ATS at Ucla

San Jose State -- 9-0 ATS as Road Favs off a Double Digit SU win, 0-3 ATS at Nevada

SMU -- 5-0 ATS as non-Conf Favs, 0-14 ATS before playing Tulsa

South Alabama -- 5-0 ATS before playing Georgia State, 0-5 ATS vs Georgia Southern

South Carolina -- 4-0 ATS versus Vanderbilt, 0-6 ATS vs Kentucky

South Florida -- 4-0 ATS vs Cincinnati, 0-5 ATS as Home Favs of >6.5 pts

Southern Mississippi -- 5-0 ATS as Dogs >8.5 pts, 3-9 ATS as Home Favs

Stanford -- 5-0 ATS vs Ucla, 0-4 ATS vs Washington State

Syracuse -- 10-5 ATS as Road Dogs,1-4 ATS at Florida State

TCU -- 6-1 ATS vs Baylor, 2-11 ATS as Home Favs

Temple -- New Head Coach, 6-0 ATS vs East Carolina, 0-9 ATS as Favs <=14 pts with Rest

Tennessee -- 6-1 ATS vs Kentucky, 1-6 ATS before playing Georgia

Texas -- 11-0 ATS before playing Iowa State, 1-7 ATS before playing Oklahoma

Texas A&M -- 4-0 ATS on the Road off a SU Dog win, 0-13 ATS with Rest

Texas State -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS after playing UL-Lafayette, 0-6 ATS vs UL-Lafayette

Texas Tech -- New Head Coach, 7-1 ATS in first of back-to-back Road games, 2-7 ATS vs Texas

Toledo -- 9-0 ATS vs Central Michigan, 0-5 ATS Home with Rest

Troy -- New Head Coach, 6-0 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, 0-10 ATS as non-Conf Favs >6.5 pts

Tulane -- 8-0 ATS at Home off non-Conference Play, 0-4 ATS after scoring >34.5 pts

Tulsa -- 10-2 ATS in second of back-to-back Road games, 2-11 ATS as non-Conf Favs

UAB -- 7-1 ATS as Home Dogs, 1-5 ATS with Rest vs non-Conf rivals

UCF -- 9-3 ATS as Home Favorites, 0-7 ATS as Dogs >10.5 pts

UCLA -- 5-1 ATS vs Oregon State, 0-5 ATS vs Stanford

UMASS -- New Head Coach, 4-1 ATS off a SU Dog win, 0-5 ATS after scoring >34.5 pts

UNLV -- 4-0 ATS vs Hawaii, 0-6 ATS before playing Fresno State

USC -- 6-1 ATS at California, 0-11 ATS as Dogs <=8 pts

Utah -- 19-3 ATS as Dogs >7.5 pts, 0-4 ATS vs Washington State

Utah State -- 6-0 ATS away with Rest, 1-6 ATS as Home Dogs

UTEP -- 4-1 ATS vs North Texas, 1-7 ATS after scoring <10.5 pts

UTSA -- 3-0 ATS at Utep, 1-9 ATS as beaten Favs

Vanderbilt -- 6-1 ATS vs Tennessee, 2-16 ATS in Game Six

Virginia -- 4-0 ATS vs Duke, 0-7 ATS after allowing <10.5 pts

Virginia Tech -- 3-0 ATS vs VIrginia, 0-5 ATS vs Pittsburgh

Wake Forest -- 8-0 ATS before playing Clemson, 0-5 ATS as Home Dogs

Washington -- 5-0 ATS vs Washington State, 0-4 ATS as non-Conf Road Favs

Washington State -- 9-0 ATS vs Oregon, 0-5 ATS vs Washington

West Virginia -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS vs Missouri, 0-5 ATS vs Oklahoma

Western Kentucky -- New Head Coach, 7-1 ATS vs Marshall, 1-4 ATS vs Florida Atlantic

Western Michigan -- 7-1 ATS as Conf Dogs >3 pts, 2-9 ATS vs below avg rivals as beaten Favs

Wisconsin -- 11-2 ATS vs Purdue, 1-6 ATS as Home Favs

Wyoming -- 10-0 ATS vs Air Force, 2-7 ATS at San Diego State

Here is a look before the 2019 NFL Football season starts on teams and some basic ATS trends:

Arizona -- New Head Coach, 4-0 vs Seattle, 10-2 ATS as non-Division Home Dogs >3 pts, 1-7 ATS on Mondays, 0-4 ATS vs Rams

Atlanta -- 6-0 ATS on Thursday Home games, 8-0 ATS as Favorites off MNF, 0-6 ATS before playing on Thursday, 0-4 ATS after playing Tampa Bay

Baltimore -- 5-0 ATS as Division Dogs >3 pts, 6-0 ATS before playing Cleveland, 0-6 ATS as Thursday Dogs, 1-6 ATS vs the AFC South

Buffalo -- 5-1 ATS before playing Miami, 5-0 ATS vs Denver, 0-5 ATS at Home vs New England, 4-9 ATS as Home Dogs

Carolina -- 10-5 ATS as Road Dogs, 8-1 ATS before playing on Thursday, 0-4 ATS at Atlanta, 2-6 ATS before playing Tampa Bay

Chargers -- 14-1 ATS Home vs AFC South, 6-0 ATS vs Houston, 0-10 ATS vs rivals with Rest, 0-5 ATS before Bye Week

Chicago -- 18-4 ATS before playing Detroit, 10-2 ATS as Home Dogs, 0-4 ATS vs New Orleans, 2-10 ATS vs NFC East

Cincinnati -- New Head Coach, 9-1 ATS at AFC West, 8-0 ATS before playing Pittsburgh, 0-4 ATS with Rest, 1-8 ATS at the AFC East

Cleveland -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS vs NFC, 3-0 ATS vs Tennessee, 0-5 ATS at Home vs Cincinnati, 0-6 ATS off Thursday play

Dallas -- 6-0 ATS as Double Digit Dogs, 4-0 ATS vs Giants, 0-4 ATS Minnesota, 1-7 ATS after playing Giants

Denver -- New Head Coach, 10-2 ATS on Thursdays, 8-0 ATS as Division Road Favorites >3 pts, 0-5 vs Buffalo, 1-7 ATS at AFC East

Detroit -- 4-0 ATS vs Washington, 8-0 ATS versus .333 or less rivals, 0-11 ATS as Thursday Dogs, 2-9 ATS before playing Green Bay

Green Bay -- New Head Coach, 9-1 ATS after playing Chicago, 4-0 ATS off Monday play, 0-6 ATS as two TD Favs or >, 1-11 ATS as Conf Dogs with Revenge

Houston -- 5-0 ATS at Home vs Tennessee, 4-0 ATS at the AFC North, 0-6 ATS vs Chargers, 2-7 ATS after playing Jacksonville

Indianapolis -- 7-0 ATS in first of back-to-back Home games, 10-1 ATS as Favorites after allowing at least 35 pts, 2-8 ATS before playing Jacksonville, 1-6 ATS after scoring at least 35 pts

Jacksonville -- 7-0 ATS vs AFC North, 8-2 ATS after playing Tennessee, 1-8 ATS vs the AFC West, 1-11 ATS before playing Indianapolis

Kansas City -- 7-0 ATS away with Revenge, 5-1 ATS vs Denver, 1-9 ATS off SU Monday loss, 2-7 ATS at Indianapolis

Miami -- New Head Coach, 8-1 ATS at Indianapolis, 5-1 ATS as Home Favs, 2-10 ATS off MNF, 0-8 ATS vs Baltimore

Minnesota -- 10-0 ATS before Bye Week, 16-5 ATS as Home Dogs, 0-11 ATS as Road Favorites as beaten Favorites, 0-8 ATS away on Mondays

New England -- 13-2 ATS after playing Miami, 10-0 ATS as Dogs off a Double Digit SU loss, 7-0 ATS at Home vs Miami, 0-9 ATS as Division Road Favorites >=8 pts

New Orleans -- 9-0 ATS as Division Dogs >= 3 pts, 4-0 ATS before Monday play, 0-5 ATS at Rams, 1-6 ATS as Division Road Favs >3 pts

NY Giants -- 10-0 ATS off Thursday games, 6-0 ATS Home as beaten Favorites, 0-7 ATS Home vs NFC West, 1-7 ATS after allowing >= 35pts

NY Jets -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS Home vs AFC West, 5-1 ATS off one ATS win, 1-8 ATS after Thursday games, 1-9 ATS after playing Buffalo

Oakland -- 4-0 ATS Home vs AFC East, 8-0 ATS away vs the AFC South, 1-6 ATS after playing Denver, 1-6 ATS before Bye Week

Philadelphia -- 4-0 ATS vs Washington, 7-1 ATS after playing Washington, 2-6 ATS as Home Favs, 0-4 ATS vs Seattle

Pittsburgh -- 5-0 ATS as Road Dogs, 5-1 ATS before playing Cincinnati, 1-9 ATS as Favs >10 pts, 2-10 ATS before MNF

Rams-- 6-0 ATS vs Tampa Bay, 7-1 ATS vs foes with Rest, 0-7 ATS before Monday play, 2-9 ATS on Thursdays

San Francisco -- 7-0 ATS on Mondays vs .333 or better opponents, 4-1 ATS vs Green Bay, 0-8 ATS with Rest, 1-9ATS at Seattle

Seattle -- 7-0 ATS on Thursdays, 12-3 ATS vs San Francisco, 0-4 ATS vs Tampa Bay, 1-5 ATS before playing Rams

Tampa Bay -- New Head Coach, 6-0 ATS on the Road vs NFC East, 4-0 ATS vs Seattle, 0-7 ATS before Thursday play, 0-5 ATS as beaten Favorites

Tennessee -- 5-0 ATS after playing Jacksonville, 7-1 ATS on MNF, 0-10 ATS before Thursday Play, 0-5 ATS as Favs >7 pts

Washington -- 8-0 ATS before Thursday play, 5-0 ATS vs Chicago, 0-7 ATS on Mondays, 1-7 ATS with Rest

2019 NFL AND NCAA Football Wagering Tips

Emotion— The most important betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't statistics or numbers. The most important edge is emotion. Find the team that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll cover a high percentage of those events. This is true in all sports. But it is even more significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football. Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams ready for games by providing the impetus for emotion. Such Coaches as John Holliday, Paul Johnson, Bill Belichick and anyone named Harbaugh among others have all shown their worth in this area over the years.

Sandwich Games— Be careful of ‘sandwich' games. That is the game for a team that's in between two other more important games. The NFL split into different Divisions recently, with fewer teams in each Division. Since then we have both the AFC and NFC broken down into four Divisions consisting of four teams each. They are called the East, North, South and West. So now Division games are of even greater significance than in the past with fewer teams in each Division. When it comes to determining the Playoff picture, these games are the most important to each competing team.

If Seattle for example, early in the season, plays Arizona this week and San Francisco in two weeks, you know they're going to be focused on those two inter-Divisional games. But if the in-between game is against say Detroit, a lesser out of Division team, be careful! Seattle will have most likely played a tough game the week before, and have an important tough game the following week. Starters may be pulled early against Detroit, and those hurting from the previous game might not even play in this one.

Too many bettors jump on a team that has been covering on the ‘sandwich' game, laying way too much ‘wood'. The team usually wins, but fails to cover. Then the bettor jumps off of Seattle the following week against San Francisco because the bettor got burnt the week before in the sandwich game!

Line Movement— Sometimes line movement means nothing, and sometimes it means everything. When I wager (my favorite recreation), I want the line to be bet dead or move ½ to one point with me. Not a lot of movement, but slightly in agreement with me. When a line moves more than one point, especially in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play. This can denote injuries or other late information such as weather, etc. But be careful, NFL teams are notorious for giving out misleading disinformation more so than any other sport.

Quite often with big line movement in the NFL, the final score falls in between the original line and the final line. This opens the door for ‘middlers', those who bet early one way and late the other way on the same game. I know several gamblers who make their living on this, and i have been successful myself at it. They give up the 10% ‘juice' in hopes of winning both ways. The most they can lose is 5% of their total bet. They clean up if one play pushes or wins and the other play wins.

NCAA football can be different though. With so many lined college games nowadays, big line movement can be bet on. For two years in a row in the early 1990's, the Ivy League football team that got the most line movement during the week won every single game those years. Every week! For games like these with fewer wagers on them, the line can easily move 3 to 5 points. Sometimes it can move even more. Beware of betting against this line movement, it generally is right. In the Colleges, stay away from wagering against consistent and massive line movement in one direction.

Here's wishing all Football bettors a great 2019 Football Wagering Season! Make sure to stop by the http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com site for tons of FREE Wagering Information, Contests, Lines, Scores, and more importantly, FREE Winners!

--Rich Green

Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com